MPU 4 (Desktop / Tablet)
First off, here’s a recap of recent iPhone launches:
iPhone 7: Wednesday, September 7 (reveal) | Friday, September 16 (release)
iPhone 6S: Wednesday, September 9 (reveal) | Saturday, September 19 (release)
iPhone 6: Tuesday, September 9 (reveal) | Friday, September 19 (release)
iPhone 5S: Tuesday, September 10 (reveal) | Friday, September 20 (release)
iPhone 5: Wednesday, September 12 (reveal), Friday, September 21 (release)
Based on those dates, we’d expect the iPhone 8 reveal date to be either Tuesday, September 12, or Wednesday, September 13.
And we think that the iPhone 8 release date will be either Friday, September 22, or Saturday, September 23.
However, we should ignore recent rumours of supply chain issues – several analysts have warned of possible delays. In May, for instance, a research note written by Deutsche Bank suggested that the iPhone 8 might not arrive until 2018. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also believes that production won’t begin until October or November, making a 2018 release seem even more likely.
That said, China’s Economic Daily News reported in May that iPhone 8 component production was on track, at least with major suppliers such as TSMC, Simplo, ZDT and KIT. The report also noted that assembly plants such as Foxconn and Pegatron were also on schedule to have a sufficient number of trained staff ready for the launch.
What is seeming increasingly likely is that yield issues will cause stock issues, rather than a delayed launch. A Digitimes report in June noted that low OLED yield for the iPhone 8 could lead to just 3-4 million units being ready for the phone’s planned September debut. As some of you may know, that’s several times less than the number of iPhone handsets Apple would normally expect to sell during the opening week of sales. Of course, we can’t verify this information, so take it with due caution.
Of course, we’ll probably see some accurate release date leaks emerging in the summer, as Apple begins making preparations for the event.